12/13 13:29 OK, here we go….
12/13 13:30 US Nov CPI increase 0.1% M/M; Est 0.3%
12/13 13:30 Wow! The numbers are in & they’re LOWER THAN EXPECTED
12/13 13:30 FURTHER SLOWDOWN in inflation pressures, this is good news for the Fed”
Futures explode – Nasdaq up 3.6%, S&P500 up 3.2%
12/13 14:00 Ranmore daily meeting begins
12/13 14:05 Sean bets red wine that the NDX will end down
12/13 14:06 Sean is reminded that he still needs to “eat his hat” based on a previous “bet”.. so the wine might aid the digestion …
12/13 17:30 Market pulls back to within a whisker of the prior close so Sean warms up his corkscrew & reminds his team that wooded Shiraz is his favourite
12/13 17:45 Word gets out about Sean’s condescending bet (I assume) & a squeeze ensues ensuring the uncorked Shiraz gets to mature another day
2 days later
“12/15 11:13 Headline “Equities Tumble as Fed Shock halts global rally”
12/15 11:13 Futures down 1.5% since pre-rally”
Today
12/20 21:00 NDX has now fallen 8.9% since the opening high
I know it’s Pantomime season and that Cramer starts his jingle with, “my job is not just to entertain you but to educate you…”
But is that what the market has become, entertainment?
Playing
“Guess inflation” followed by
“Guess the Fed” and finally
“Guess the market response”?
Our role in society is to allocate capital efficiently & if we fail, society will pay the price by having lower savings
Think of all the savings wiped out by the
Crypto collapse or
“meme bets” or
SPACs or
buying overpriced fad stocks like ZOOM and PTON
It’s BYND ridiculous!
If people are playing the greater fool theory with algos that respond to words in a statement and then send an over-priced Nasdaq index up 3.6% based on a month-on-month inflation number that beats “expectations” by a few basis points, how on earth are we achieving that objective?
A WSJ article yesterday cited Goldman’s data showing 55% of all AUM is #passiveinvesting
But if we’re all invested in #etfs that hug market cap-weighted benchmarks
where the largest weightings TODAY, are based on the companies that did best in the OLD environment of low inflation & low-interest rates
and most likely underexposed to companies that can do well in this CURRENT environment,
how are we allocating capital efficiently?
Do we really think that the “free lunch” offer of a) low fees and b)”no risk of underperforming benchmarks” exists in financial services land?
Come on; this land is more “wolf eat wolf” than “dog eat dog”?
Maybe there is a free lunch somewhere, but it’s definitely not in financial services!
No, I’m afraid all bills eventually have to be paid
How?
In the form of terrible absolute returns, is my guess
And unfortunately I fear 2022 is just the first taste of that