The loss of scent is a Covid symptom but Value investing seems to have a bad smell right now


Yes, because you guys buy smokestack industries, boring banks & yesterday’s growth

Not true

We simply want decent businesses at a sensible price with good odds of an attractive return

And what smart person thinks that’s a bad idea (or smell)?

Other than Jack D from Square who thinks paying $29bn for Afterpay’s $4m of H1 cash flow makes sense

But they’re growing massively

Well, if you want to give me £29000 to receive £8 a year, please do get in touch

I’ll even “grow” your return by 100% p/a for the next 10 years

Just know that by yr 5, you’ll have only recouped 0.9% of your investment & 28% by yr 10

and if they grow customers that fast, they’ll have 8bn by then?

But the world has moved on, we want exciting “stories” like Fintech & next-gen companies

Well, we can all drive fast but it’s called “breakneck speed” for a reason – broken necks

But you value guys have under-performed the world index in recent years

Yes, recent periods have messed with the long-term numbers

but people still enjoyed inflation-beating returns

And remember Aesop taught us in 500BC that “slow & steady wins the race”

But that’s history

oh unlike the “history” you used to choose hot funds such as Chinese ones with “great long term track records” earlier this year and that are now cratering

A different history?

Well, you missed the party at Tencent for years & I read “the average Chinese person spends 4 hours a day” on their platform?

Well, I spend 7 hours in bed every night but that’s no reason to buy a mattress company is it?

Didn’t work out too well for Steinhoff

Besides, President Xi knows about this 4-hour thing & it’s a problem not a reason

Anyway, forget history, just tell me which of these make sense?

Robinhood (ticker HOOD) listed this week & 2 days ago had a market cap of $59bn

$59bn for $1.3bn of 12-month REVENUE which is mostly “payment for order flow” and they warn could be banned…


Well, do you think Citadel (run by Billionaire, Ken Griffin), is buying orders from “relatively poor” new traders if it’s unprofitable?

But that’s the rich taking from the poor, I thought Robin Hood did the opposite


And don’t forget these crazy values mean they get included in indices when they rebalance & then the Passives buy them  

I guess the company wants dumb money as shareholders, not people looking under the HOOD


for $35bn

you can buy HP Inc, the number 2 PC manufacturer in the world
which grew revenue by 27% last quarter, generates billions in free cash flow which they’re using to buy back shares

And you’d have $24bn which is enough for a few US homebuilders with exploding order backlogs on 6x earnings

not smokestack, all growing & make sense

One day value investors will come up smelling of roses

by which time we’ll have all regained our sense of smell

Until then, leave the “stories” to Netflix