As he disembarked, he was arrested at gunpoint, sent to a remote prison beyond reach of journalists, charged with tax evasion, & spent the next 10 yrs in a Siberian gulag
He is Mikhail Khodorkovsky (MK), the CEO of Yukos, one of the world’s largest oil companies at the time
But unfortunately for MK & Yukos, this wasn’t a televised Olympic Judo contest where a neck lock ends with a double tap
This was an: out of sight, zero-rules, cage fight against an angry Russian Bear
With only one winner
the Bear
who levied $30bn of tax charges against Yukos,
disembowelled their key assets at rigged auctions
and left MK & his foreign shareholders with “nada”
There was never any tax evasion
because when it was all over, a Russian court dropped the case against PWC who’d prepared the accounts & tax returns
But this was no place for rational argument,
Bears don’t do rational
What went wrong?
Well, only months earlier, MK had invited Exxon to acquire a stake in Yukos
Which spooked the Bear
because Bears don’t want strategic profitable assets in the hands of foreigners
especially not led by the likes of MK, who had drifted from oil into liberal politics
Bears don’t like drift
Roll forward 17 yrs & Jack Ma prepares to list Ant Financial
One of the World’s wealthiest men, about to secure foreign investment in a very profitable business
Who also happened to have liberal views about education & finance
Which made the Chinese Government “uncomfortable”
The listing was shelved & Jack disappeared from sight
Sound familiar?
Only this time, it was a Dragon in the cage, not a Bear
In May the CEO of the world’s largest online delivery business, Meituan, shared a 1100-year-old, 28 Chinese character, poem about “the misguided attempts of China’s first emperor to quash dissent”
But Dragons are sensitive creatures & don’t like critical poems (unless they’re critical of foreign governments)
The company lost $16bn in value overnight
In June, Didi was warned not to list, but they defied the Dragon
And Dragons don’t like defiance
The stock has fallen 45%
This month, the Dragon forced Tencent Music to end their exclusive licensing deals with labels that were securing profitable subscribers
Because Dragons like music
The share is down 68% since March
And last week Chinese online education companies have been accused of “exploiting” education
and Dragons don’t like exploitation
You see, Bears only really care about themselves
Whereas Dragons also seem to care about their people
And want to give them: cheap payments, cheap music, cheap education & cheap taxis
Making it worrying for investors
Because Dragons won’t tolerate highly profitable monopolies that “exploit” their population
So, what’s next, cheap games?
Well, only the Dragon knows what the Dragon will do
But like Bears, what Dragons won’t do;
Is worry about foreign shareholders