I’m worried


What are you worried about?

I’m worried about the “markets” being expensive,

and worried about a recession,

and worried about inflation,

and worried about what the Fed might do next

That’s a lot of worries, so let’s look at each one

If you own the “market” via large US index ETFs or a fund that has lots of large-cap tech, maybe you should worry, because they’re expensive

But they’re “working”

Well Japan has been “working” and that’s not expensive


And if “expensive” worries you, then maybe Value managers are your solution because we spend every waking moment (and most sleeping ones) worrying about NOT owning “expensive”

But Value hasn’t been “working” well this year?

Passive Value hasn’t performed well because they’re full of large US banks and oil companies, but I’m talking about Active Value

Yes but some of you Active Value guys have lagged the World Index this year

Well, not all of us…, but if you were worried and we’re sat in cash, then you ALSO “lagged” the World Index

And I dare say by more than my under-performing peers 😉

Besides, most of us Value guys have smashed inflation in recent years

and that’s the real “benchmark” isn’t it?

I mean your cash hasn’t beaten inflation …

Ok but I’m still worried about a recession

Don’t bother – not even a Nobel prize-winning economist can consistently correctly call recessions

I know one such person who didn’t call a “V”or “W” or “U” shaped recession when Covid happened,

they called an “I” shaped one – they thought the economy would tank and never recover

No prize for that call – Nobel or otherwise

And when people called a European recession last year with
the war and
spiking gas prices and
climbing mortgage rates and
Fund Managers went the most underweight European equities EVER, guess what?


No recession

AND Europe outperformed the US!

Even in our nearly 15yr life of the fund, we’ve been through a few recessions and still compounded at over 10% p/a beating the World Index and inflation

Ah yes, inflation, I’m very worried about that too!

Same story – don’t bother – if the Fed with all their Economic PHDs have been pretty useless at getting inflation right, what chance do you have with CNBC and a few Yahoo Finance articles?

And even if you correctly guess inflation and

correctly guess what the Fed says at their press conferences and

correctly guess how interest rates respond

Please don’t think that translates through to guessing which markets and sectors outperform,

interest rates are high and tech has been a winner this year – who guessed that combo?


Besides, most people worry about what you’re worrying about, and guess what


Most people don’t beat the market

So what should I do?

get Active, get Value

And be like Bobby McFerrin

Don’t Worry, Be Happy